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Economic Research

France can pull it off

France faces many difficulties, including a structural competitiveness deficit, high unemployment, and low corporate profitability. These...(April 2014)

No ECB action (yet) despite growing concerns

The ECB defeated our (out-of-consensus) forecast of a rate cut today, choosing not to react to the latest drop in inflation. At the same...(April 2014)

Get to the nitty gritty, but without losing sight of the rest!

Growth in Q413, which was positive in almost all countries, at 0.3% QoQ compared with 0.0% in Q3, picked up everywhere. It was sustained in...(March 2014)

The UK recovery: is this time any different?

Historically, domestic demand, especially household consumption, tends to lead recoveries in the UK. Net trade tends to be a muted...(March 2014)

Spain: things are looking up

The recovery is under way in Spain, even if fundamentals remain fragile. GDP is expected to progress by 0.9% in 2014, boasted by a strong...(March 2014)

Winter chill followed by spring growth

Q1 economic growth was hurt by harsh winter weather. A spring rebound will be sustained by improving growth fundamentals. Fiscal and...(March 2014)

ECB: toolbox closed, not locked

The ECB left policy rates unchanged at today's meeting, contrary to our expectation of a small Refi rate cut. No new liquidity measures were...(March 2014)

ECB preview: will they, won't they?

We forecast a small (10bp) cut in the ECB's main refinancing rate next week, but the surprising uptick in Eurozone core inflation in...(February 2014)

The new face of BoE's guidance

As the unemployment rate has approached the 7% threshold, the BoE reassessed the state of the economy alongside its February Quarterly...(February 2014)

US: Continuity of Fed policy

The general tone of Chair Yellen's semi-annual testimony highlighted the continuity of monetary policy. QE will be phased out in a measured...(February 2014)