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France : Crédit Agricole leading indicators
The Crédit Agricole leading indicator suggests that GDP is stable in Q1 and Q2 2012. We have increased our Q1 growth forecast to 0% q/q,...(May 2012)
Read moreEurozone: Crédit Agricole leading indicators
The fall-off in activity looks like being less marked than expected in Spain, limited to 0.3%. In Germany, activity may have fallen...(May 2012)
Read moreEmerging economies in 2020: a New World?
By 2020, the emerging economies will account for around 50% of the world economy. By then, two-thirds of global GDP growth will be generated...(May 2012)
Read moreLatin America in 2012
Average growth in Latin America will slow slightly in 2012, coming to 3.6% in volume terms, following 4.2% in 2011 and 6.0% in 2010. The...(May 2012)
Read moreECB laying the ground for potential action
The ECB left its main policy rates unchanged today. The Governing Council did not discuss a change in rates as the monetary stance was...(May 2012)
Read moreFrance: strengths to emphasise
There has been much talk recently about the structural weaknesses in the French economy. But while correcting these points can only help to...(May 2012)
Read moreFrance, 2012 Elections: Programmes fall short of challenges
The electoral programmes of the two main candidates in the French presidential election were presented in January in the case of F....(April 2012)
Read moreTodays ECB decision to leave rates unchanged was a non-event. However, its communication continues to show a gradual shift towards a...(April 2012)
Read moreECB exit still a very distant prospect
Todays ECB decision to leave rates unchanged was a non-event. However, its communication continues to show a gradual shift towards a...(April 2012)
Read moreMarkets still looking for meaning
Growth came to a sudden halt in late 2011 as unemployment surged. Economic conditions have deteriorated sharply in the Eurozone and our...(March 2012)
Read moreMonetary policy: new frontiers, new challenges
With the crisis, central banks found themselves in the front line when it came to cushioning financial shocks and underpinning the fragile...(March 2012)
Read moreECB downplays Bundesbank's concerns
For the second straight month the (modest) changes to the ECB statement are slightly less dovish than we had expected, with near-term upside...(March 2012)
Read moreEco Focus - ECB downplays Bundesbank's concerns
For the second straight month the (modest) changes to the ECB statement are slightly less dovish than we had expected, with near-term upside...(March 2012)
Read moreASEAN 4 + Vietnam: a dynamic region
On the whole, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam weathered the 2009 crisis quite well, and these five continue to...(March 2012)
Read moreFrance: Just one surprise, not two!
France's positive surprising GDP performance in Q4 2011 (+0.2% q/q) is unlikely to be repeated in Q1 2012. We expect Q1 GDP growth to...(March 2012)
Read moreECB to delay rate cuts for tactical reasons
We no longer expect the ECB to cut rates in March, although we maintain the view that additional monetary easing is warranted as economic...(March 2012)
Read moreEMU: show me the imbalances!
While Eurozone Q4 GDP preliminary estimates revealed a broad-based contraction in activity at the end of last year (-0.3% QoQ), the figures...(February 2012)
Read moreEurozone: Crédit Agricole leading indicators
Due to an unpalatable mixture of fiscal austerity and monetary support, eurozone growth at year-end was sluggish. The eurozone confidence...(February 2012)
Read moreFrance: Crédit Agricole leading indicators
Crédit Agricole's leading indicators suggest a steady GDP in the fourth quarter of 2011 and a little decrease in the first quarter of 2012...(February 2012)
Read moreThe ECB to wait and see what the LTROs can achieve
At first sight, the ECB delivered a "triple NO" at today's meeting: no explicit hint at a rate cut; no additional non-standard...(February 2012)
Read moreECB's Bank Lending Survey not as bad as feared
The results of the latest Bank Lending Survey by the ECB look slightly less negative to us than what could have been expected, pointing to...(February 2012)
Read moreFrance's loss of its AAA rating and its effects
Rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) announced on Friday 13 January 2012 that it was downgrading the sovereign credit rating of...(January 2012)
Read moreECB in easing, albeit data-dependent mode
The ECB left its policy rates unchanged at today's meeting. The official statement still reflects an easing bias, in our view, although...(January 2012)
Read moreGreece vs. Argentina: looks can be deceiving
Since the beginning of the Greek crisis in late 2009, it has become increasingly common to compare Greece today with Argentina's situation...(December 2011)
Read moreWays of coping as the crisis mutates
The West is facing a crisis that is mutating. In the beginning, excess debt in the private sector triggered a balance-sheet recession; then...(December 2011)
Read moreIndonesia: a rising economic power
The 1997 crisis has been steep. Forced to reform, the Indonesian economy has won in stability since then. The way it surmounted the 2009...(December 2011)
Read moreECB interventions - what lies ahead
Investors' hopes lie in the ECB fixing the Eurozone bond market, but a QE-style unlimited purchase programme is a very distant prospect, in...(November 2011)
Read moreFrance: new austerity measures to guarantee a deficit of 4.5% of GDP in 2012
On 7 November, the French government presented a new package of deficit reduction measures amounting to 7 billion euros. The aim is to meet...(November 2011)
Read moreEmerging powers: New economic partners for Africa?
Trade relations between Africa and its emerging-market partners (China, India, Brazil, Turkey and South Korea) are developing rapidly....(October 2011)
Read moreFrance: public deficit of 4.5% of GDP in 2012
The government published its 2012 Finance Bill on 28 September, in which it proposes to cut the public deficit from 5.7% of GDP in 2011 to...(October 2011)
Read moreLearning how to proceed in a terra incognita
Markets are not able to stabilise themselves. They have lost their bearings and are in a terra incognita, mostly because the business cycle...(September 2011)
Read moreIndia's demographic promise
The past two decades have seen India's economic opening and liberalization, which have contributed to stronger, more stable GDP growth. This...(September 2011)
Read moreRussia: The hour of choice
Russia's social profile has changed over the past decade: despite the oligarchy's confiscation of the bulk of the energy rent, economic...(September 2011)
Read moreECB time for a break
As a result of downside risks to activity and a more balanced outlook for inflation, the ECB's Governing Council is likely to leave policy...(September 2011)
Read moreECB: time for a break
As a result of downside risks to activity and a more balanced outlook for inflation, the ECB's Governing Council is likely to leave policy...(September 2011)
Read moreFrance: new measures announced to cut public deficit to 4.5% of GDP in 2012
In late September, the French government is to present its draft budget for 2012. The public deficit is to be cut from 5.7% of GDP in 2011...(August 2011)
Read moreFrance: new measures announced to cut public deficit to 4.5% of GDP in 2012
In late September, the French government is to present its draft budget for 2012. The public deficit is to be cut from 5.7% of GDP in 2011...(August 2011)
Read moreSisyphus cannot simply kick the can down the road
In an unchartered economic environment, market expectations cannot be very stable. This is especially the case when a structurally weak...(July 2011)
Read moreSisyphus cannot simply kick the can down the road
In an unchartered economic environment, market expectations cannot be very stable. This is especially the case when a structurally weak...(June 2011)
Read moreSisyphus cannot simply kick the can down the road
In an unchartered economic environment, market expectations cannot be very stable. This is especially the case when a structurally weak...(June 2011)
Read moreEconomic and financial forecasts
This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole...(June 2011)
Read moreBoE: to wait or not to wait?
Higher-than-expected CPI inflation in April increased our inflation profile for the remainder of 2011-12. We assume that the upside surprise...(May 2011)
Read moreBoE: to wait or not to wait?
Higher-than-expected CPI inflation in April increased our inflation profile for the remainder of 2011-12. We assume that the upside surprise...(May 2011)
Read moreDebt crisis: give time a chance
During the crisis, governments managed to avoid meltdown by setting themselves up as a rampart against a possible collapse of the financial...(May 2011)
Read moreDebt crisis: give time a chance
During the crisis, governments managed to avoid meltdown by setting themselves up as a rampart against a possible collapse of the financial...(May 2011)
Read moreItaly: Crédit Agricole Leading Indicators
Crédit Agricole's leading indicator based on survey data points to Q1 2011 GDP growth of 0.3% q/q. That based on activity data suggests a...(May 2011)
Read moreItaly: Crédit Agricole Leading Indicators
Crédit Agricole's leading indicator based on survey data points to Q1 2011 GDP growth of 0.3% q/q. That based on activity data suggests a...(May 2011)
Read moreFrance: Crédit Agricole Leading Indicators
The Crédit Agricole leading indicator based on survey data points to GDP growth of 1.3% q/q in Q1 2011. The indicator based on activity...(May 2011)
Read moreGermany: Crédit Agricole Leading Indicators
The Crédit Agricole leading indicator based on survey data points to GDP growth of 0.6% q/q in Q1 2011. That based on activity data...(May 2011)
Read moreSpain: Crédit Agricole Leading Indicators
Crédit Agricole's leading indicator based on survey data points to GDP growth of 0.1% q/q in Q1 2011. That based on activity data suggests...(May 2011)
Read moreSpain: Crédit Agricole Leading Indicators
Crédit Agricole's leading indicator based on survey data points to GDP growth of 0.1% q/q in Q1 2011. That based on activity data suggests...(May 2011)
Read moreGermany: Crédit Agricole Leading Indicators
The Crédit Agricole leading indicator based on survey data points to GDP growth of 0.6% q/q in Q1 2011. That based on activity data...(May 2011)
Read moreFrance: Crédit Agricole Leading Indicators
The Crédit Agricole leading indicator based on survey data points to GDP growth of 1.3% q/q in Q1 2011. The indicator based on activity...(May 2011)
Read moreBrazil: growth subject to constraints
Brazil's strong GDP growth since 2004 is not sustainable without substantially higher savings and investment. Despite considerable assets,...(May 2011)
Read moreBrazil: growth subject to constraints
Brazil's strong GDP growth since 2004 is not sustainable without substantially higher savings and investment. Despite considerable assets,...(May 2011)
Read moreTurkey, between growth and development
Turkey has accomplished a historic transition. The economy is now capable of withstanding a financial crisis, as it proved in 2010 when it...(May 2011)
Read more'Super Mario' unlikely to overturn the ECB
Following Weber's resignation, Banca d'Italia Governor, Mario Draghi, is the big favourite to succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as the next ECB...(May 2011)
Read moreECB preview: to be or not to be (strongly vigilant)
We expect the ECB to send a fairly straight¬forward signal on Thursday. Either the Governing Council states its strong vigilan¬ce and...(May 2011)
Read moreBrazilian industry: technological challenges and sustainable growth
Brazil's economy returned to strong growth in 2010. How sustainable the growth in Brazilian industry? Government policy will play an even...(April 2011)
Read moreUK 2011 Budget: No room for concessions
Budget 2011 reasserted the plan of fiscal consolidation at a relatively rapid pace. The outlook for the underlying fiscal position over the...(April 2011)
Read moreThe Brazilian agri-food industry: contradictions, promises and opportunities
Agriculture is a major strength of Brazil's booming economy. While vast land reserves and diverse ecosystems are key assets, Brazil's...(April 2011)
Read moreAre ECB rate hikes going to finish off the periphery?
The question is not to assess whether or not ECB rate hikes will negatively impact Eurozone peripheral economies - they will - but by how...(April 2011)
Read moreStability: no longer what it used to be
The market has been looking for better visibility since Lehman's bankruptcy. At each stage of exit from the crisis, any success in...(March 2011)
Read moreJapan: Economic and Social Impacts of the Earthquake - Update
The scale of the loss due to the earthquake and tsunami will be unprecedented. There appear total of more than 23,000 people who lost their...(March 2011)
Read moreJapan: Economic and Social Impacts of the Earthquake
It is too early to tell the total impact of the earthquake and tsunami yet and uncertainty also remains at to what happens to the nuclear...(March 2011)
Read moreCentral banks: from one regime to another
Financial inflation originates in the industrialised countries which have ultra-accommodative monetary policies and abundant, cheap...(March 2011)
Read moreECB to pull the rate trigger in the third quarter
Several ECB Governing Council members across the whole "hawk-dove" spectrum have turned out to be very vocal on inflation risks...(February 2011)
Read moreLatin America in 2011
In terms of GDP performance, 2011 will be a year of consolidation. Growth will probably slow somewhat, but could be somewhat stronger,...(February 2011)
Read moreBelgium: at the heart (not the periphery) of the eurozone
After Greece, Ireland and Portugal, it is now Belgium's turn to come under pressure from the financial markets. In January, the risk premium...(February 2011)
Read moreNegotiating through an Irish election
A likely change of government in Ireland at the upcoming general election on 25 February looks set to lead to an attempted renegotiation of...(February 2011)
Read moreECB preview: four messages and a "rendez-vous"
The ECB's bark is likely to remain worse than its bite as long as the sovereign and banking crisis looms. That said, HICP inflation again...(February 2011)
Read moreVietnam: A matter of confidence
The Vietnamese economy has been through a rough patch. The overheating in 2008-09 barely avoided a hard landing. The actual adjustment...(December 2010)
Read moreRules, discretion and the right assessment
In the current uncertain environment, investors are looking for tags with which to mark market trends in the near future. Economic policy...(December 2010)
Read moreFrance: a recovery with jobs, or without?
The French economy is gradually moving into post-crisis times. GDP growth is becoming balanced once more, increasingly driven by consumption...(December 2010)
Read moreBarack Obama's economic track record at mid-term - Part 3 Tomorrow: a long list of challenges
The 2 November 2010 midterm elections are a good time to assess the economic record of Barack Obama during his first two-years in office. We...(November 2010)
Read moreBarack Obama's economic track record at mid-term - Part 2 - Today: from recession to recovery
The 2 November 2010 midterm elections are a good time to assess the economic record of Barack Obama during his first two-years in office. We...(November 2010)
Read moreCrédit Agricole leading indicators for Germany
We look for Q3 GDP to expand by 0.6% q/q after +2.2% in Q2, with some upside risks signalled in the Crédit Agricole leading indicators. The...(November 2010)
Read moreCrédit Agricole leading indicators for France
The Crédit Agricole leading indicator based on survey data points to GDP growth of 0.3% q/a in the third quarter of 2010. The indicator...(November 2010)
Read moreBarack Obamas economic track record at mid-term. Part 1 Looking back: the origins of the crisis
The 2 November 2010 mid-term elections are a good time to assess the economic record of Barack Obama during his first two-years in office....(November 2010)
Read morePublic finances in emerging markets: part one
Over the past decade, and especially from 2003 through 2008, emerging countries have reduced their debt in relative terms, with the greatest...(October 2010)
Read moreThe Risks of Quantitative Easing 2
It is widely felt that economic recovery is moving too slowly in the United States, bringing increasingly pressing questions about the high...(October 2010)
Read moreInvest or distribute? Germany or France?
Not surprisingly, it is investment that will make the difference as countries emerge from the crisis. The crisis was financial at the...(October 2010)
Read morePortugal: a bumpy road ahead
The additional fiscal tightening measures announced by the Portuguese government should help bring down the 2011 public deficit ratio to...(October 2010)
Read moreEurozone inventories: Just in time
Traditionally inventory rebuilding is a growth accelerator during cyclical recoveries. Right now, however, growth is only being underpinned...(October 2010)
Read moreThe equation with two unknowns
Three months ago, the focus was on Europe with growing sovereign risk for peripheral Eurozone countries. Today, questions mostly centre on...(October 2010)
Read moreMarked effort to restructure Frances public finances in 2011
It aims to cut the public deficit from 7.7% of GDP in 2010 to 6% of GDP in 2011. The growth projections underpinning the budget are,...(October 2010)
Read moreSpain: near-term risky, medium-term more promising?
We see several near-term risks for the Spanish economy. GDP is likely to contract in the third quarter following the VAT hike, while the...(September 2010)
Read moreScenario 2010-2011: a slowdown, is not a meltdown
Our scenario rules out the eventuality of a double-dip recession in the US. Nevertheless, while we have always defended the idea of sluggish...(September 2010)
Read moreCrédit Agricole leading indicators for Italy
The Credit Agricole leading indicators suggest a growth rate between 0.4% QoQ and 0.5% QoQ for the 2nd quarter of 2010. As a result, we have...(August 2010)
Read moreCrédit Agricole leading indicators for Spain
The Credit Agricole leading indicators point to a pick up in activity in the 2nd quarter of 2010. The indicator based on survey data...(August 2010)
Read moreCrédit Agricole leading indicators for Germany
We have revised our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 1.3% q/q (compared with the initial 0.9%), in line with the upside risks signalled in the...(July 2010)
Read moreCrédit Agricole leading indicators for France
The Crédit Agricole leading indicator based on survey data points to GDP growth of 0.2% q/q in France for the second quarter of 2010. The...(July 2010)
Read moreConsumption restricted by the sharp slowdown in income, as it emerges from the crises
French household consumption has slowed sharply since the financial crisis hit. The accompanying recession led to a severe deterioration in...(July 2010)
Read moreThe double-dip risk and its market implications
Market participants face seriously limited visibility on the pace of near-term growth, particularly for the advanced economies. However, we...(July 2010)
Read moreCutting public deficits in France: between ambition and political will
On 30 June, the French government presented a preparatory report in the run-up to the forthcoming public finance policy debate. The report...(July 2010)
Read moreThinking outside the box on economic policy
The markets are currently imposing on Europe a more brutal tightening of fiscal policy earlier than expected. But that does not mean that...(July 2010)
Read moreThinking 'outside the box' on economic policy
The markets are currently imposing on Europe a more brutal tightening of fiscal policy earlier than expected. But that does not mean that...(July 2010)
Read moreBack to the Future
While the economic crisis undergoes its multiple transformations, two recent announcements-the creation of a "synthetic cell" and...(June 2010)
Read moreBack to the Future
While the economic crisis undergoes its multiple transformations, two recent announcements-the creation of a "synthetic cell" and...(June 2010)
Read moreBank credit
Bank lending patterns during the current upturn in the euro area are surrounded by a number of questions. 2009 saw the euro zone's most...(June 2010)
Read moreBank credit
Bank lending patterns during the current upturn in the euro area are surrounded by a number of questions. 2009 saw the euro zone's most...(June 2010)
Read moreUnited States: small business a force to be reckoned with
In April, the NFIB index of small business optimism showed a significant improvement, reaching its highest point since September 2008. Its...(May 2010)
Read moreUnited States: small business a force to be reckoned with
In April, the NFIB index of small business optimism showed a significant improvement, reaching its highest point since September 2008. Its...(May 2010)
Read moreEMU: growth picks up slightly in first quarter 2010
Growth picked up slightly in the first quarter of 2010. On a first estimate eurozone GDP growth advanced 0.2% q/q in Q1 2010, after...(May 2010)
Read moreEMU: growth picks up slightly in first quarter 2010
Growth picked up slightly in the first quarter of 2010. On a first estimate eurozone GDP growth advanced 0.2% q/q in Q1 2010, after...(May 2010)
Read moreEuropean Stabilisation Mechanism: a historic response
Faced with a threat of systemic contagion, EU Member States have closed ranks and are showing that they are equal to the challenges (and the...(May 2010)
Read moreEuropean Stabilisation Mechanism: a historic response
Faced with a threat of systemic contagion, EU Member States have closed ranks and are showing that they are equal to the challenges (and the...(May 2010)
Read moreSouth Africa: a miracle, but it has to do better
South Africa has confounded the doomsayers of 1994 - both those who predicted that the black majority's accession to power would lead to...(May 2010)
Read moreSouth Africa: a miracle, but it has to do better
South Africa has confounded the doomsayers of 1994 - both those who predicted that the black majority's accession to power would lead to...(May 2010)
Read moreCredit Agricole's leading indicator for France
The Credit Agricole's leading indicator based on survey data points to GDP growth of 0.6% q/q in Q1 2010. The indicator based on activity...(May 2010)
Read moreCredit Agricole's leading indicator for France
The Credit Agricole's leading indicator based on survey data points to GDP growth of 0.6% q/q in Q1 2010. The indicator based on activity...(May 2010)
Read moreSouthern Euro Area: economic growth bogged down by fiscal austerity
Pressure from financial markets has forced the southern euro area countries (SEA) to implement tough austerity measures in order to bring...(April 2010)
Read moreSouthern Euro Area: economic growth bogged down by fiscal austerity
Pressure from financial markets has forced the southern euro area countries (SEA) to implement tough austerity measures in order to bring...(April 2010)
Read moreThe recovery continues while uncertainties still linger
The economic climate seems to be stabilising. In developed countries a partial recovery is currently underway. This is a recovery because...(March 2010)
Read moreFrance: historic recession, atypical unemployment
While France reported its third consecutive quarter of positive GDP growth in Q4 2009, with output up 0.6% qoq, the latest employment...(March 2010)
Read moreThe recovery continues while uncertainties still linger
The economic climate seems to be stabilising. In developed countries a partial recovery is currently underway. This is a recovery because...(March 2010)
Read moreChinAfrica
Chinese firms demonstrate a broad range of competitive strengths and are successfully tackling international competition in Africa. Still,...(March 2010)
Read more