France – What can we take away from Insee’s new population projections?
On 8 June, Insee (France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) updated its population projections for France up to 2070. The update, which comes nearly five years after the last exercise, serves as a new basis for the projections included in the annual report of the Conseil d’Orientation des Retraites (the French Pension Advisory Council).
In the new baseline scenario, assumptions for fertility and life expectancy at birth have been revised downwards, while the net migration assumption has been revised upwards.
France’s population could stand at 65.9 million in 2070 after peaking at 69.8 million in 2037.
Revised assumptions reflecting the latest demographic trends
The cohort component method
Population projections are based on the cohort component method, which consists of producing annual estimates of the population by sex, based on projected births, deaths by age and net migration (the difference between the number of people entering and leaving the country). The baseline population (at 1 January 2023) corresponds to official estimates based on vital statistics. Population projections are then produced as at 1 January every year until 2070, based on the natural balance (the difference between births and deaths) and net migration, which drive population change.
Projections are sensitive to three parameters: the total fertility rate (which reflects the probability, for women of childbearing age, of having children in a given year) for births, life expectancy for deaths and net migration itself, which is assumed to remain constant over the entire projection horizon. The assumptions used for these three variables critically affect population projections and are subject to debate.
Population scenarios: new assumptions
Given the uncertainty, a number of scenarios are developed around the baseline scenario to reflect different ways these parameters might evolve over the long term. High, baseline and low assumptions are considered for each of these variables. By combining these various assumptions, a total of 27 scenarios are produced.
Comparison of assumptions across scenarios
Sources: Insee, Crédit Agricole S.A./ECO
Every five years or so, Insee updates its population projections by adjusting its assumptions based on observed demographic trends and the latest available population estimates.
Updating the assumptions underlying these demographic parameters is particularly important. These scenarios are used in particular by the French Pensions Advisory Council in its work on the medium- and long-term outlook for the French pension system.
Revised assumptions in the baseline scenario
As part of this latest exercise, in addition to taking into account data observed since the previous exercise, Insee has updated the assumptions underpinning the baseline scenario:
1. The total fertility indicator (TFI)[1] has been revised downwards: it is expected to gradually decline to 1.45 children per woman from 2028 (previously 1.8), reflecting the recent decline in birth rates (the TFI has declined sharply since 2021, from 1.82 to 1.56 in 2025).
2. Life expectancy at birth has been revised downwards slightly for both women (89.5 years in 2070 – 3.6 years higher than in 2025 – compared with 90 years previously) and men (86.7 years in 2070 – 6.4 years higher than in 2025 – compared with 87.5 years previously).
3. Net migration has been set at 150,000 a year from 2026 onwards, compared with 70,000 a year in the previous projection. This assumption is more consistent with the latest observed levels, with 2025 net migration estimated at 176,000).
These three revised assumptions (total fertility indicator, life expectancy at birth and net migration) have implications for the adult mortality rate. Between 2026 and 2050, the adult mortality rate is fairly similar in the 2026 and 2021 baseline scenarios. However, after 2050, adult mortality rates diverge, with the new projections using a higher rate. This reflects a smaller share of 18-to-60-year-olds in the new baseline scenario, owing to a lower fertility rate.
Baseline scenario: population growth until 2037, then decline until 2070
A French population of 65.9 million in 2070
Insee’s baseline scenario puts France’s population at 65.9 million in 2070: 33.3 million women and 32.6 million men. While women are forecast to account for 51.4% of the French population in 2026, this is set to fall to 50.5% by 2070. This reflects a larger increase in life expectancy among men than among women.
France’s population is expected to peak at 69.8 million in 2037. Given the low birth rate, the population is set to decline continuously after 2037, with net migration no longer making up for the natural balance (the latter being negative from 2025, then decreasing over the entire projection horizon).
Age dependency to steadily worsen up to 2070
The combination of declining fertility and rising projected life expectancy would inevitably lead to an ageing population. Under Insee’s baseline scenario, the proportion of 20-to-64-year-olds – which largely corresponds to the working-age population[2] – is set to decline slightly, from 55.3% in 2026 to 54.8% in 2040, then 54% in 2050 and, finally, 51.7% in 2070. Meanwhile, the proportion of those aged 65 and over is set to increase sharply, reaching 32% in 2070, compared with 22.2% in 2026. This imbalance will only become more pronounced as the proportion of under-19s continues to decline, falling from 22.5% in 2026 to 16.3% in 2070.
This would cause the dependency ratio – which measures the number of people aged 65 and over (most of whom are retired) per 100 people aged 20 to 64 (most of whom are working) – to worsen from 40.1% in 2026 to 48.6% in 2040, 51.9% in 2050 and 61.9% in 2070. Given the downward revision of the fertility rate, and despite the downward revision of life expectancy, the dependency ratio would rise more sharply from 2050 onwards under Insee’s new projections than it did under the previous scenario.
Alternative scenarios taking into account uncertainty
The inevitability of population ageing
The alternative scenarios put forward by Insee, based on the various assumptions (high, baseline and low) already discussed for each of the exogenous parameters, do not alter the conclusion that the French population will age markedly by 2070. However, the “high” scenarios result in a larger population in 2070 than the baseline scenario, and population decline, which begins in 2037 in the central scenario, would occur later under the high life expectancy, high fertility and high net migration scenarios. In the high population scenario (combining high assumptions for all three parameters), the population would even continue to increase throughout the period, rising to over 78 million by 2070. Conversely, under the “low” scenarios, the population would decline more rapidly and be lower in 2070 than under the central scenario. In the low population scenario (combining low assumptions for fertility, net migration and life expectancy), the population could even decline from as early as 2028, falling to less than 55 million in 2070.
Overall, the population projection is more sensitive to assumptions about fertility and net migration than to those about life expectancy.
Marianne Picard et Juba Ihaddaden
[1] The TFI is different from the fertility rate: it is the sum of age-specific fertility rates observed in a given year, representing the average number of children a woman would have if the fertility conditions observed in that year prevailed throughout her reproductive life (similar to how life expectancy works).
[2] In the 2026 population projections, the working population corresponds to 20-to-64-year-olds. Other approaches are possible: for example, the International Labour Office bases the working population on 15-to-64-year-olds.